Organizational Design,Competition, and Financial Exchanges

We investigate the incentives for vertical and horizontal integration in the financial securities service industry. In a model with two exchanges and two central securities depositories (CSDs), we find that decentralized decisions might lead to privately and socially inferior industry equilibria with vertical integration of both CSDs with their respective exchanges. Allowing for horizontal integration of CSDs avoids privately inferior industry equilibria. However, we observe too little horizontal integration from the social perspective. We link our results to recent regulatory and institutional developments such as the emergence of multilateral trading facilities, over-the-counter regulation, and financial harmonization.     

Demographic Transition and Fertility Rebound in Economic Development*

Recent evidence on the “fertility rebound” offers credence to the idea that, from the onset of early industrialization to the present day, the dynamics of fertility can be represented by an N-shaped curve. An overlapping generations model with parental investment in human capital can account for these observed movements in fertility rates during the different stages of demographic change. A demographic transition with declining fertility emerges at the intermediate stage, when parents engage on a child quantity–quality trade-off. At later stages, however, the process of economic growth generates sufficient resources so that households can rear more children while still providing the desirable amount of education investment per child.     

地方政府环境支出行为的空间策略互动研究*——传导机制与再检验

本文从理论和实证两个维度检验了地方政府环境支出行为的空间策略互动的传导机制。结果表明，环境支出存在明显的空间策略互动与时间滞后效应。其表现为相邻省级地区之间环保财政支出行为的互相模仿和路径依赖。外商直接投资和财政分权并不是导致地区间环境支出“逐底竞争”的直接原因。在构建多维度政绩考核体系来引导政府财政支出竞争的同时，建立地区间环境支出的协调机制和对外开放等途径，有利于实现均衡和绿色发展。     

营商环境优化能够提升全球价值链分工地位吗*

本文基于世界银行发布的历年营商环境报告相关数据，从OECD ICIO提供的基础数据测算结果的基本事实出发，理论阐释了营商环境对攀升全球价值链的影响及可能机制。以此为理论先导，进一步利用跨国面板数据的计量检验发现：第一，营商环境优化的确对价值链分工地位具有显著正向作用；第二，上述正向作用不仅来自营商环境优化直接效应，而且还通过价值链迁移、创新活动激发、贸易条件改善等中介作用形成间接效应。据此，打造国际一流营商环境对促进中国攀升全球价值链具有重要支撑作用。     

最低工资标准、人力资本扩张与企业成本加成*

本文以人力资本扩张为切入点，构建了最低工资、人力资本扩张影响企业成本加成的理论框架，并使用中国1998-2013年284个地级市的工业企业数据进行了经验研究。结论显示：最低工资上调会显著抑制企业成本加成的提升，削弱了企业的市场势力，但该抑制效应在人力资本扩张的背景下得以缓解。同时本文通过进一步分组回归发现，最低工资标准与人力资本扩张对企业成本加成具有明显的异质性影响。因此，适度、稳定调整最低工资标准及推动人力资本质量的整体提升有助于保持企业成本加成能力及其动态竞争力。     

Consumption,asset wealth,equity premium,term spread,and flight to quality

We link transitory deviations of consumption from its equilibrium relationship with aggregate wealth and labor income to equity returns on the one hand, and to two characteristics of bond investors—the premium demanded to hold long‐term assets, and “flight to quality” behavior—on the other hand. Using a panel of 10 euro area countries over the period 1984Q1–2017Q4, we show that a rise in the consumption–wealth ratio predicts both higher equity returns and the future term spread, while a fall in the consumption–wealth ratio explains a large fraction of the rise in the spread between the “risky” and the “safe‐haven” bond.     

Wage returns to education in Ethiopia

ABSTRACT

In this paper, we aim to provide robust estimates of wage returns to education in Ethiopia. Previous estimates vary widely based on the scope and size of the study sample, variables employed, and estimation method. We use two recent rounds of national labour force survey data and a pseudo- (or synthetic) panel framework to address the well-known potential endogeneity of schooling in wage regressions. Birth-year cohort based pseudo-panel estimate of the return to an additional year of education is between 14 percent and 16 percent, 4 to 5 percentage points higher than that from ordinary least squares (OLS). The significant downward bias in OLS is further confirmed by two-year pseudo-panel estimates and remains robust, to a large extent, as we use an alternate model, change the estimation sample, and address selection bias concurrently with endogenous schooling using a novel approach. We discuss some possible explanations in the context of Ethiopia.     

宅基地使用权转让合同效力探究--基于30个宅基地使用权转让纠纷的实证研究

近年宅基地使用权转让合同效力纠纷案件大量发生,其中不乏当事人"恶意"起诉的案件。但因宅基地使用权制度规定与法院对宅基地相关法条强制性规定分类的不同理解,导致案例判决结果差异较大。对比学说且结合实际案例,提出将公法权益与私法权益的对比权衡作为强制性规定分类的主要标准,赋予法官在此类案件中的自由裁量权,即依据实际情况认定转让合同效力。     

Market access and regional dispersion of human capital accumulation in Turkey

Building on early advances in development economics, the theoretical construct of new economic geography asserts that geography plays a crucial role in educational human capital accumulation. Based on this expectation, this study investigates the impact of market access on provincial human capital accumulation in Turkey. Results indicate that market access matters for understanding why some regions lag behind others in terms of average years of schooling. Our results are robust to the inclusion of spatial mechanisms, different specifications of the spatial weight matrix, endogeneity and alternative measurements of market access and to a host of other factors that affect regional human capital accumulation.     

自治、博弈与激励:我国农村人居环境污染治理的制度安排

基于中央政府、地方政府及农民的互动视角,采用博弈分析方法,系统考察了我国农村人居环境污染的逻辑机制。研究发现:我国农村人居环境污染的根源在于规制失灵;农村人居环境公共资源的“公地悲剧”不是必然现象,可以在农民之间建立一种自实施的自治机制,避免导致“公地悲剧”;由于利益目标的差异,中央政府与地方政府之间的激励问题、地方政府与农户之间的博弈行为,导致了农村人居环境规制失灵。研究启示是,制度的建立健全是农村人居环境治理顺利推进的保障,更将有利于乡村振兴战略的实施以及我国农村的可持续发展。